I shall start by saying I count Robert J. Sawyer as a friend. I've had the opportunity to meet him on more than one occasion, exchanging phone calls and emails which had nothing to do with the many interviews I've had with him on a professional level. I think he's a swell guy, a smart guy and is completely informed on a wide range of topics. But that doesn't mean he's not wrong in this case.
First, to the good advice. As you may know, Rob has his own imprint, Robert J. Sawyer Books, a division of Red Deer Press in my second favorite home-away-from home, Canada. As mentioned on his blog, he recently decided to reject a submission at least partly because the author was a bit too pushy (two status inquiries in three months) and, in my opinion, threatening with "publish me, for I have other offers on the table, hear me roar." The offers weren't really good, as it was the POD route. Rob's advice:
... repeatedly forcing an editor to focus his or her thoughts on your work by asking if a determination has been made yet may lead the editor to make decisions prematurely, and there's only one safe decision to be made that way. Since you want a decision now, here it is: I'm going to pass on your book.
Score one for Rob and a valuable life-lesson to the author. D'oh!
A bit further in the post/reply to the author is where I see things a bit differently than Rob. This author was also contemplating online serialization (I assume text, but it could have been audio) as a viable option. Rob suggested:
So, best of luck elsewhere. All that said, though, one writer to another, I think going the route of online serialization and POD are mistakes you will regret in the years to come. Online publishing and POD are a waste of time; you'll have fewer than a hundred readers, I'm willing to wager, in either format. But it's up to you.
I'm not going to talk much about POD, but I can say that if the book was good enough to keep Rob's attention for "a good hunk" of the book (as indicated in the post), then it was head and shoulders above most of the POD junk out there. So I'll take that wager.
Serialized online fiction, especially if that serialization takes advantage of RSS distribution, can and often does result in significantly more than one hundred readers. Well-written books (and well narrated, if in audio form) following the RSS paradigm, which delivers new chapters/episodes to subscribers when made available, will, for a significant portion of titles, result in one thousand or more readers/listeners to the work. I'm not making these numbers up, nor am I working from anecdotal evidence. I've seen it time and time again, on Podiobooks.com and other spots.
Rule of thumb for all those considering the serialized route: If you can get a publisher to buy the book from you at a decent rate, sell it. But if you are not in that position, serializing your work, in text or audio via an RSS feed, is an exceptional way to raise the awareness of your book and skills as a writer. For many "underpublished" authors, obscurity remains the number one obstacle to overcome.
(Stepping off the soap box.)
Thanks! You do an awesome job!
It's not a misconception until you prove it wrong, Evo, old boy.
Thousands of hits, or downloads, or whatever, don't necessarily (or even reasonably) mean thousands of actual reads or listens. I eventually get around to reading or listening to maybe one tenth of the material I aggregate, and I'd be surprised if this is an atypical figure.
"Thousands" is an easy figure to bandy about; how precisely are you measuring readership? We're specifically talking about science-fiction novels here (and as text serialization, not read aloud in podcasts; that is, not at all what Podiobooks.com offers). Setting aside the text issue, science-fiction serializations are a small segment of everything offered at Podiobooks.com, and Podiobooks.com has just 4,888 active members, picking and choosing from 1,139 titles, as attested here.
Now, yes, if 100% -- every single one of those people -- was reading EACH SPECIFIC science-fiction serial, you'd have "thousands." Hell, if HALF of them were doing so, you'd still have thousands, in the sense that two thousand is a plurality of thousands.
But do you really think HALF the people at Podiobooks.com -- which offers business titles, essays, religious fiction, children's fiction, and more, in addition to SF -- read each specific SF serial? I very much doubt that. I very much doubt that even 10% of them read/listen to any given one -- and even if it were that many (actually reading it, not just aggregating the material) you're still only talking a few hundred consumers, and I suspect that's generous.
If you have access to other actual hard numbers, do share (although I'd really prefer to see them for print, since that's what I was talking about). Until then, I stand by my contention that a novel serialized online is likely to have fewer than 100 readers, although I do welcome being proven wrong with solid, verifiable numbers.
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ROBERT J. SAWYER, Science Fiction Writer
Hugo Award winner for HOMINIDS
Nebula Award winner for THE TERMINAL EXPERIMENT
http://www.sfwriter.com
Just so there's no feeling that I'm being unfair, the comment I posted here is the same one I posted in my blog. Over there, Evo did indeed say "audiences in the thousands." Here, he's being more conservative, saying instead "one thousand or more." But I still think that for the vast majority (Evo only speaks of a "significant proportion," but doesn't quantify it) that's far more than can be reasonably expected.
Actually, SF/F makes up the lion's share of what Podiobooks.com currently has to offer. Not surprising, really. And when Podiobooks.com measures the audience of a book, we go well beyond the error-riddled metrics such as hits and downloads. Since we require registration, we're easily able to filter out repeat and partial downloads. I'm not claiming that our stats are 100% right, or even that we manage to pull out six nines, but I am claiming we're well above 90% acurate on our counts. And we know precisely which books are being listend to -- and by whom.
And speaking of counts, it looks like 17 titles on Podiobooks.com currently have (or have had) over 1000 listeners. I'd call 30% a significant number. (BTW... the 1,139 is the total number of episodes which make up the 58 titles on the site currently. Until tomorrow when I post number 60!)
But of course, this is serizalized audio, and you were specifically talking about print. Obviously I don't have access to the backend data for those text versions, and there isn't anyone (to my knowledge) providing the same sort of service for print as of yet. Perhaps Cory Doctorow, John Scalzi or Daniel Pinkwater have some data they would be willing to share. Or perhaps we could find out just how many mobile devices received their weekly installments of "Monster Island" not long ago.
And though there isn't a quantifiable number associate with it, I would like to post an interesting note from John Scalzi, who's Hugo-nominated novel Old Man's War was actually released as serialized text in 2002:
He's talking about his work and Four and Twenty Blackbirds, the debut novel by Cherie Priest.
Finally, it looks like there may be sites which can provide count data. Wikipedia shows quite a few clearing houses for "blooks". I'll reach out to them and see if they have data they are willing to share.
Now you're saying, well, let's ask the two most successful examples of online text distribution how well they're doing as an indication of whether or not the advice I gave to an unknown, first-time novelist was sound or not -- which would be not unlike me saying, "Well, let's check J.K. Rowling's numbers to see how a first-time fantasy novelist can expect to do."
John Scalzi and Cory Doctorow are exceptions, literally; their experiences have been exceptional, and are not the norm.
And even when Cory does talk about this, we get soft numbers from him; Cory usually sites the number of printings his books have gone into -- six for his most-successful one to date, all in trade paperback, which, of the three common book formats [hardcover, mass-market, and trade] has the lowest threshold for economical reprinting], instead of the actual number of copies sold.
He does know that figure; he just doesn't share it. But it's on his royalty statements -- and royalty statements, in fact, don't list number of printings (because they're meaningless, since a printing has no fixed size -- a trade paperback reprinting could easily be and often is 1,000 copies), so he's giving us the public number [anybody can see what the printing number is on a book], and is withholding the private number.
There's an evangelical quality to a lot of what's said, including your comments here, Evo, about online publishing and podcasting, but the hard numbers that could be disclosed by the evangelists but are not otherwise available to those who might dispute their rosy portrayal often are withheld in favor of soft metrics or vague statements.
Cory and John, incidentally, are excellent writers with very significant, long-established personal online presences. And, yes, if you're so good that you can be a finalist for the John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer, as they both were, or a winner, as Cory already has been, or a Hugo finalist for your first novel, as John currently is, then maybe you, too, can be an exceptional data point.
But reality-checking demands that if you're going to shore up your argument with best-case data, you need to also include the worst-case data ... or else throw out all exceptional highs and lows, and just look at the middle; either way, the wonderful success of John and Cory needs to be counterbalanced by failures or simply ignored in the equation. As with the testimonials in weight-loss ads, you need the asterisk that says, "Results not typical. Your results may be much less."
There's room in the cultural landscape for one, and maybe even a few, wunderkind SF pop-culture prophets who got in on the ground floor a la Cory; there isn't room for dozens, let alone hundreds -- so implying "You can be the next Cory Doctorow!" isn't what I'd call sound career advice.
And one wonders, given the plug-pulling recently done on Tor's attempts to join in with the Baen ebook distribution system (the plug was pulled by Tor's parent company, which has, rightly or wrongly, profound concerns about paying to package text in print form for the bookstore trade that is also freely or cheaply available online) if anything like the circumstance of being bought from online serialization will ever happen again. People are quick to turn aberrations (the two cases you cite) into trends, and to cite exceptional data as the norm; that's no way to build a business or a career.
And you're still pulling punches, Evo, as far as numbers are concerned. You've got 58 podiobooks; you say 17 have a thousand listeners (and ARE you in fact defining that the way I did -- at least half the episodes downloaded?), but then, instead of answering my question about how many are SF novels, you go back to vague terms: "the lion's share" of the 58 (not the 17, at least not on the basis of anything you've said here) are, you say, science fiction (and not fantasy).
Surely you know how many of the 58 are SF, and how many of the lucky 17 are; we don't need to fall back on a generalization.
Precisely how many data points -- how many SF novels serialized at Podibooks that have had at least 2,000 people (to support the claim you made in my blog) or 1,000 people (to support the claim you made here) downloaded half the chapters? What we know for sure is that there are NO MORE THAN 17 data points, and, for the 2,000 threshold, probably many fewer. If we're talking about a single-digit number of cases, then let's directly say that.
And then -- and I say again -- 1,000 people downloading something for free does not mean 1,000 listeners or readers. Just because they grabbed it doesn't mean they do anything with it. What percentage of people who grab something for free actually read/listen to it?
Well, we can get some figures, I suppose: on Podiobooks.com, readers are asked to tip the author/publisher if they like what they've heard. Of the subset of the 17 works that have had 1,000 downloads of 1/2 of their installments (if indeed that's what you mean when you say 1,000), how many of those 1,000 people have actually left a payment?
Here's a hard number of my own. My novella "Identity Theft" has been online for free at Fictionwise.com for four months now (since March 20, 2006). In that time, it's been "read" 5,258 times, which sounds quite impressive. ("Identity Theft" has always been free at Fictionwise because, during its entire life there to date, it's been an award finalist, first for the Nebula, and now for the Hugo.) Now, first, we should look at the verbs here: "Read" or "listened to" is what you'd say, apparently, but, in fact, we don't know that.
Over at Fictionwise, the number (which Fictionwise terms "Units sold" on the royalty statement, but that's a misnomer too, since with a freebie nothing has been sold) actually only measures how many people have clicked a couple of online buttons, adding the item to their online bookshelves -- that's step one of a three-part process in going from Fictionwise customer to actual reader.
Step two, how many of those 5,258 customers have actually downloaded the work from their online bookshelf to their PC or PDA or eBook reader for reading, is a figure I don't have access to (although I presume Fictionwise.com does).
And then there's step three: actually reading the work (or actually listening to it). Granted, lots of paper books sell, too, that no one ever gets around to reading -- but at least the author got paid for those; they don't for freebies at Fictionwise or for anything at Podiobooks (unless the customer elects to offer a tip, something presumably quite rare for works that haven't been listened to).
So how many actual readers are there of "Identity Theft" through Fictionwise? Who knows? But it's a subset of a subset of 5,258.
And how many actual listeners are their of works at Podiobooks.com? You say the fact that Podibooks.com requires registration is significant; so does Fictionwise.com, though. When you say 1,000 listeners, you can't possibly know that. What you mean (I presume) is 1,000 people who've hit the free "Subscribe" button on Podiobooks.com, so the real number of listeners, again, is a subset of a subset of that figure.
And even if you mean 1,000 people went to step two -- actually downloading, not just accumulating an OPML list at Podibooks.com of things they might someday download (the equivalent of Fictionwise's server-side bookshelf), there's still a further reduction: how many people actually listened to it? And that figure you just don't know, but it surely isn't 100%.
Since this all started when I was giving career advice, as posted on my blog, I should point out what I and the person I was corresponding with knew: that the serialization he'd been offered was one in which he was going to be paid an advance (of a couple of hundred dollars) by the site in question.
That means, one presumes, that the site in question was going to be SELLING, not giving away, the online text. How big a drop off in "readers" or "listeners" can one expect when one starts actually charging for online material? Many people will grab any freebie they see, but may not actually do anything with it. If they pay for it, I suspect the actual usage rates -- the percentages that go to stage two, and then stage three -- are much higher.
Well, here's some more hard data: in the same period -- the last four months -- during which 5,258 people added my "Identity Theft" to their online bookshelves -- my bestSELLING (as in actually being sold) title at Fictionwise racked up just 23 sales -- that's one-half of one percent of the number who grabbed the freebie.
And I do want to bring this back to where it started by reminding you that, in any event, you've done nothing now to disprove the figure of fewer than a hundred readers I suggested; all the data you've provided (which amounts to one hard number now: 17) has been related to audio podcasts given away for free.
I stand by my advice, and I'll add one more piece: when deciding what to do to build a career in science-fiction or fantasy, be conservative in your financial predictions. You're less likely to end up disappointed.
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ROBERT J. SAWYER, Science Fiction Writer
Hugo Award winner for HOMINIDS
Nebula Award winner for THE TERMINAL EXPERIMENT
John W. Campbell Memorial Award winner for MINDSCAN
http://www.sfwriter.com
Im going to look like a bug in this clash of titans, but I thought I just might jump in for a sec.
I believe when Evo said that Podiobooks.com had 1,000 something subscribers. Im pretty sure that the numbers dont stop there. I gathered that he can check my profile (I am a podiobooks memeber) and see that I have downloaded say Earthcore and Spherical Tomi. Which I think is a an even tighter number.
Does that mean I have "read" them yet? No, but neither does me actually buy a book. I have a stack of books I just recently purchased, I have no idea when Im going to get around to reading them.
Now that the little person has made his somewhat uninformed comment, I leave the soapbox to you.
Speaking of best-case/worst-case, is it worth mentioning that the average first-time SF/F novelist sells less than 5000 copies? That's a number related to me an many others by Mike Stackpole. Will an unkwown's first time serialization or online publication garner Doctorow or Scalzi numbers? Unlikely. But would-be novelists should also understand they're not likely to sell Rowling or Sawyer numbers right out of the gate -- even with a print contract. First time is first time, and you gotta pay your dues. In most cases, there are no shortcuts. Though exceptional cases are seen on both sides of the fence.
On the subect of how many Podiobooks.com titles are SF -- my count shows that 21 of our (now) 60 titles are listed as SF. However, keep in mind that we can only choose one genre for each book, and many blur the lines. We let authors pick the category in which to list their books. Looking at all 60 and trying to get to just what you and would agree are "SF novles), I count 22. And out of the 17 which have more than 1000 subscribers, 10 are what I would call an SF novel.
I still can't meet your "at least half way" criteria. Episodes are delivered on a schedule at the listeners choosing, and many folks are only three of four chapters in to the story. I'm not trying to be vague, it's just that your criteira doesn't fit with our model. Our 10th most popular SF title on Podiobooks.com gets around five new subscribers a day, keeping your "half way through" number a constant moving target.
And while I agree with your "downloaded does not always equal listened" comment, I don't think it applies in the case of Podiobooks.com, or at least not learly as much. It's difficult to download an entire book at once (that's by design), though some do manage to do so. Most, however, subscribe and have episodes delivered to them weekly, as they do with the other podcasts to which they subscribe. Though we have not done a survey ourselves on Podiobooks.com listeners, podcast listeners in general to tend to listen to what they download. Again, I doulbt we could say 100%, but I would be very surprised to learn that more than 10% - 15% of the downloaded episodes are not listened to. People will, again speaking in broad generalizations, unsubscribe from the title before letting large audio files clog their podcatcher. That has been the reported history of how podcast listeners behave.
Do some subscribe and never bother to download? sure. But a quick scan of the system shows that number to be in the 1 - 2 percent range. Around 98% of the people who hit "subscribe" actually add the podcast feed to their podcatcher of choice and start receiving episodes.
But this is quickly turning into a questioning and reporting of numbers rather than the original spirit of the conversation which was "will serializing your SF novel deliver you more than 100 readers?". I think I've shown that it, at least in the case of the SF novelists who have gone the Podiobooks.com route, can and often times will. The jury is still out on the print versions, but I'm initating conversations with some of the sites I discovered yesterday in an attempt to find that number out.
Hey, since we're talking best-case scenarios, let's talk Scott Lynch. The Lies of Locke Lamora is quickly on its way to outselling every book and author named in the argument. (sans Rowling, of course, but certainly including the agregate of the arguer's output.)(No offense.)
He started out by serializing online.
What it comes down to, then, is quality. If your work is good, people will come. People will talk. More readers will come. Marketing only goes so far; it's quality and not format that matters.
Thanks for that information, William. Summer had told me about Scott, but I did not realize he had released the book in an online, serialized fashion. I did a bit of reading, and it sounds like he's a perfect example of how this can work out for someone with a quality product to offer.
And though we have no way of knowing if Scott's serialized version pulled in more than 100 readers, it appears that at least one of those readers was the right one.
I'm not actually sure how many readers Scott had when he began posting excerpts of "Lies" online a few years ago... only that he had all of us clamoring for more.
And yes, I did tell you that Gollancz bought the book after reading the excerpts he posted on his LiveJournal
But in all honesty, that was a while ago... last October or so when he had them send me the ARC from the UK, just before last year's World Fantasy Con.
I've known Scott as long as I've known Matt Stover, and I don't think I've ever been happier for someone from that brilliant and cantankerous crew than when I heard that "Lies" was being adapted for the big screen. Except maybe when he announced that his fiance Jen said "Yes"
Also, you might ask Tee what the increase in print sales was from releasing MOREVI as a podiobook, as well as what his subscriber numbers were for it.
I know he said that his publisher was surprised at the increase in print sales during that time, and the main reason he did the serialized podiobook was to generate interest in the sequel prior to its release.